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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."